* Sudden cold weather across northern hemisphere lifted demand
* Utilities ordering to restock after cold snap
SINGAPORE, Feb 3 (Reuters) – Coal prices bounced away from multi-year lows this week as the northern hemisphere’s peak demand winter season underpinned the market, but the longer-term outlook remains bleak due to falling consumption in major markets and cheap oil.
In January, physical thermal coal prices fell below levels last seen during the 2008/09 global financial crisis, hit by a combination of factors, including tumbling oil prices and excess supply as a result of slowing economic growth and the rising use of alternative fuels for power generation.
However, a recent cold snap in Europe, northern Asia and North America has led to a spike coal demand and prices.
“There was a sudden cold snap pretty much everywhere, so a lot of utilities burned more coal than expected, and they are now ordering to restock in case there’s another spell of cold,” a coal trader said.
Coal cargoes for shipment from Australia’s Newcastle terminal last settled at $52.45 a tonne, up almost 8 percent from January’s low of $48.60.
Prices for cargoes from South Africa’s Richards Bay jumped more than 13 percent during the time to $56.55 a tonne.
European benchmarks remained the weakest, with cargoes for delivery into Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp (ARA) last closing at $45 a tonne, near multi-year lows hit at the end of January.
Reuters meteorological data showed that continental European temperatures were expected to be around 6 degrees Celsius above the seasonal norm until mid-February, after which there was a possibility of colder weather.
For northern Asia, forecasts showed weather within the seasonal norms for most of February.
MIXED LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
Beyond a short-term rise in demand due to cold weather, the longer-term outlook for coal consumption is mixed.
In the United States, cheap natural gas thanks to the shale exploration boom of the last years continues to push coal-fired power generation to the margins.
Morgan Stanley said it expected 5.8 gigawatt (GW) of coal retirements and 6.6 GW of coal plant conversions to gas in 2016.
For China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, BMI Research said that coal demand would likely peak by 2020 as renewables, nuclear and gas-fired power generation expand.
But coal still remains the world’s dominant fuel for power generation, with a combined capacity of almost 600,000 megawatt (MW) of coal projects planned, versus around 400,000 MW of hydropower, under 400,000 MW of gas-fired power and some 300,000 MW of nuclear power projects in the planning, according to BMI.